Gera Contents Risk Score — Methodology
How the GCRS/10 is computed from official Home Office crime data for 310 Community Safety Partnerships in England and Wales.
Last updated: 2026-06-20 · Source data: financial year 2024/25 (April 2024–March 2025) · Open Government Licence v3.0
What is the Gera Contents Risk Score?
The Gera Contents Risk Score (GCRS/10) is a Gera-computed index that measures the relative theft-and-robbery burden in a local area — the two offence categories most relevant to personal-property and contents-insurance risk. It combines "Theft offences" and "Robbery" from official Home Office Community Safety Partnership data, expresses the total as a rate per 1,000 resident population, and ranks each area on a 1–10 scale (1 = lowest contents risk, 10 = highest).
GCRS is a context signal, not an insurance-premium quote. Insurers consider your specific address, security measures, property type, claims history, and many other factors. GCRS gives you a data-driven starting point for understanding your area's relative risk profile.
The formula
Step 1 — Raw rate
contentsRiskRaw = (theft_offences_2024_25 + robbery_2024_25) ÷ population_mid2023 × 1,000
Step 2 — GCRS band
GCRS = percentile decile rank of contentsRiskRaw across all 310 CSPs
(bottom 10% → GCRS 1; top 10% → GCRS 10)
Variable definitions
- theft_offences_2024_25
- Home Office offence group "Theft offences" for the CSP, financial year 2024/25. Includes shoplifting, bicycle theft, theft from vehicles, and all other theft sub-categories.
- robbery_2024_25
- Home Office offence group "Robbery" for the CSP, financial year 2024/25. Includes robbery of personal property and business robbery.
- population_mid2023
- ONS mid-2023 resident population estimate for the matching local authority (Nomis NM_31_1, TYPE464). CSP boundaries align closely with LA district boundaries.
Worked example
Highest risk: London, City of (GCRS 10/10) — a dense urban core with an exceptionally high visitor and commuter population inflating its recorded theft rate relative to its small resident population.
Lowest risk: Broadland (GCRS 1/10) — a predominantly rural area with low population density and limited retail targets, producing one of the lowest theft rates in England and Wales.
England & Wales average: 50.3 theft+robbery incidents per 1,000 residents per year (population-weighted across 310 CSPs).
GCRS band definitions
| GCRS | Band | Percentile range | ~Areas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1/10 | Very Low | 0–10% | 31 |
| 2/10 | Very Low | 10–20% | 31 |
| 3/10 | Low | 20–30% | 31 |
| 4/10 | Low | 30–40% | 31 |
| 5/10 | Moderate | 40–50% | 31 |
| 6/10 | Moderate | 50–60% | 31 |
| 7/10 | High | 60–70% | 31 |
| 8/10 | High | 70–80% | 31 |
| 9/10 | Very High | 80–90% | 31 |
| 10/10 | Very High | 90–100% | 31 |
Exclusions and caveats
- Fraud excluded: Fraud offences are recorded centrally by Action Fraud and cannot be meaningfully allocated to a geographic area. They are excluded from all GCRS calculations.
- Residential burglary: The Home Office CSP table does not list residential burglary as a separately named offence group at CSP level. "Theft offences" (the group used here) covers all theft sub-categories but is classified separately from "Burglary" in the Home Office counting rules. The GCRS therefore reflects theft and robbery; for burglary-specific data see the Home Office's police-force-area tables.
- Daytime/visitor population: Rates are calculated per resident population (ONS mid-2023). Areas with large daytime footfall (e.g. city centres) will show higher rates relative to their residential population.
- Recording practices: Differences in reporting rates and police recording practices across force areas affect the raw counts. These are neutral official statistics, not a judgment on any area or its residents.
- 4 Kent anomalies (inherited from source data): Four Kent CSPs (Maidstone, Medway, Tonbridge and Malling, Tunbridge Wells) have anomalously low counts in the source data; they are included in this dataset with the values as published but may under-state true local rates.
Data sources & licence
- Home Office — Police recorded crime Community Safety Partnership open data (file prc-csp-mar21-dec25-tables-230426.ods, published 23 April 2026). Financial year 2024/25 columns used.
- ONS — mid-2023 local authority population estimates (Nomis NM_31_1, TYPE464). Used as the population denominator for each CSP.
Contains Home Office and ONS data © Crown copyright and database right 2026, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Statistics presented as neutral context only and must not be used to characterise or stigmatise any area or its residents.
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