Claim-Likelihood Estimator
A simple way to see why insurance matters: even a low annual chance of a fire, theft, leak or collision adds up over the years. Pick a scenario below to see how the maths works — and read genuine UK statistics alongside it for context.
Quick answer
The chance of an event at least once over n years is 1 − (1 − annual chance)ⁿ. A 1% annual chance becomes roughly 10% over a decade. This tool is illustrative — it teaches the maths, it does not predict your personal risk or set a price.
Relevant cover: Buildings / home insurance
A self-assessment that scales the illustrative base rate up or down.
Illustrative chance over 10 years
3.9%
- Modelled annual chance
- 0.40%
- Roughly
- 1 in 250 years
Cumulative probability uses 1 − (1 − annual chance)years.
Real-world context
142,494 fires attended by fire & rescue services in England (Year ending March 2025 (1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025)).
Source: Home Office / Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (MHCLG) · Open Government Licence v3.0
This is an illustrative teaching model, not a prediction, a statistic, or a quote. The base frequencies are simplified assumptions — they are not insurer data and do not describe your real risk. Insurers price on many factors this tool does not see.
Get a real quoteReal-world context
These are genuine official statistics, shown for context only — they are not used to compute the illustrative figures above.
- 142,494 fires attended by fire & rescue services in England (Year ending March 2025 (1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025)). Source: Home Office / Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (MHCLG) · Open Government Licence v3.0.
- 128,272 reported road casualties (all severities) in Great Britain (Year 2024). Source: Department for Transport (DfT) · Open Government Licence v3.0.
Claim-Likelihood FAQs
How likely am I to make an insurance claim?
Nobody can give an exact figure for an individual — it depends on your property, location, behaviour and luck. This tool is a teaching model: it shows how a small annual chance builds into a larger probability over many years, and how a "1 in N years" reading works. It is not a prediction of your personal risk.
Where do the numbers in this estimator come from?
The base frequencies are deliberately simplified, illustrative assumptions chosen to demonstrate the maths — they are not insurer data and do not describe any real claim rate. Separately, the tool shows genuine Open Government Licence statistics (such as the number of fires attended in England, or reported road casualties in Great Britain) purely as real-world context.
How does the cumulative probability work?
If something has an annual chance p of happening, the chance of it happening at least once over n years is 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ. A 1% annual chance becomes about a 10% chance over 10 years. That is why even low-probability events are worth insuring against over a lifetime.
Is this a quote or a prediction?
No. It produces no price and predicts nothing about you specifically. Insurers price using many rating factors this tool cannot see. Use it to understand risk over time, then get a real quote for an actual price.