GeraSure / US County Hazard Risk
US County Hazard Risk Index
The Gera County Hazard Score (GCHS) ranks 480 US counties on a 0–100 scale using FEMA National Risk Index data covering 18 natural hazard types. Highest-risk county: Hidalgo, TX (98.4/100). Reference period: November 2023.
Which US county has the highest natural hazard risk?
Hidalgo, TX has the highest Gera County Hazard Score among the top-population US counties at 98.4/100, based on FEMA National Risk Index data (November 2023) covering Expected Annual Loss, social vulnerability and community resilience across 480 counties. Gera publishes this index from public-domain FEMA data.
Highest-risk US counties by GCHS (November 2023)
| County | State | GCHS / 100 | EAL Score | SOVI Score | RESL Score | FEMA Rating | Population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hidalgo | TX | 98.4 | 98 | 98.8 | 1.1 | Relatively High | 869,532 |
| Imperial | CA | 97.6 | 96.8 | 99.5 | 3.2 | Relatively High | 179,319 |
| Cameron | TX | 96.8 | 97.7 | 98.3 | 7.9 | Relatively High | 420,083 |
| Bronx | NY | 95.9 | 94.7 | 99.6 | 6.5 | Relatively High | 1,471,631 |
| Kern | CA | 95.9 | 98.5 | 96.9 | 12.3 | Relatively High | 908,530 |
| Harris | TX | 94.3 | 100 | 89.5 | 12.7 | Very High | 4,726,200 |
| Dallas | TX | 93.9 | 98.9 | 89 | 11.1 | Relatively High | 2,607,218 |
| El Paso | TX | 93.9 | 92.3 | 98 | 8.1 | Relatively Moderate | 864,454 |
| Yuma | AZ | 93.8 | 88.5 | 99.4 | 1.4 | Relatively Moderate | 203,299 |
| Kings | NY | 93.4 | 97.6 | 88.4 | 9.4 | Relatively High | 2,735,309 |
| Clark | NV | 93 | 99.2 | 85.7 | 11.3 | Relatively High | 2,260,510 |
| Merced | CA | 92.8 | 93.7 | 97 | 15.5 | Relatively Moderate | 281,054 |
| Tulare | CA | 92.6 | 94.3 | 93.4 | 12.8 | Relatively High | 472,585 |
| Fresno | CA | 92.1 | 97.1 | 96.1 | 26.6 | Relatively High | 1,007,944 |
| Los Angeles | CA | 91.8 | 100 | 85.8 | 19.7 | Very High | 10,005,712 |
| Madera | CA | 91.8 | 93.3 | 93.5 | 14.7 | Relatively Moderate | 156,146 |
| Polk | FL | 90.4 | 97.8 | 91.9 | 30.4 | Relatively High | 721,918 |
| Yakima | WA | 89.9 | 91.6 | 95.7 | 23 | Relatively Moderate | 256,420 |
| Miami-Dade | FL | 89.5 | 99.8 | 90.1 | 37.1 | Very High | 2,698,679 |
| Lee | FL | 89.5 | 99.5 | 72.1 | 9.2 | Relatively High | 759,922 |
GCHS = 0.50 × EAL + 0.30 × SOVI + 0.20 × (100 − RESL). All input scores are FEMA NRI percentile ranks (0–100). EAL = Expected Annual Loss; SOVI = Social Vulnerability Index; RESL = Community Resilience. Source: FEMA NRI, November 2023.
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Browse by county (480 counties)
Individual hazard risk pages are available for the 480 most-populous US counties. The remaining counties are summarised by state.
State-level summaries
County hazard risk: frequently asked questions
- What is the Gera County Hazard Score (GCHS)?
- The Gera County Hazard Score (GCHS) is a 0–100 composite index computed from three FEMA National Risk Index components: Expected Annual Loss (EAL, 50% weight), Social Vulnerability Index (SOVI, 30% weight) and the inverse of Community Resilience (20% weight). Higher scores indicate greater natural-hazard risk. All inputs are FEMA-published percentile ranks derived from 18 natural-hazard types including hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes and wildfires.
- Where does the data come from?
- The GCHS is computed entirely from the FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) county-level dataset, published by the US Federal Emergency Management Agency and archived at Harvard Dataverse (doi:10.7910/DVN/JSQ8KZ). The NRI is US Government open data in the public domain. Reference period: November 2023. Gera re-normalises the three input scores into a single 0–100 index using the published formula; no estimates or non-FEMA data are added.
- Does a high GCHS mean higher insurance premiums?
- A high GCHS reflects the underlying hazard and vulnerability profile of a county, which correlates with insurance pricing but is not a direct premium quote. Insurers weigh many property-specific factors (construction type, elevation, distance to coast, age of home) alongside county-level risk. The GCHS provides context for understanding relative risk — counties in the Very High band (≥80) often experience restricted coverage availability and above-average premiums.
- How often is the GCHS updated?
- Gera updates the GCHS whenever FEMA publishes a new NRI county dataset. FEMA typically updates the NRI annually. The current figures are based on November 2023 NRI data. The Gera methodology page describes the exact formula so the index is independently reproducible from the source CSV.
- Which natural hazards are included?
- The FEMA NRI Expected Annual Loss score (the primary GCHS input) covers 18 natural hazard types: avalanche, coastal flooding, cold wave, drought, earthquake, hail, heat wave, hurricane, ice storm, landslide, lightning, riverine flooding, strong wind, tornado, tsunami, volcanic activity, wildfire and winter weather. The EAL represents the composite expected annual monetary loss across all applicable hazards for a county.
Methodology
The Gera County Hazard Score is computed from three FEMA NRI percentile ranks: Expected Annual Loss (weight 50%), Social Vulnerability Index (30%), and the inverse of Community Resilience (20%). Full formula, inputs and verification steps are documented on the GCHS methodology page.
Contains public sector information published by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and licensed under the US Government open data, public domain. Source: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI) — Harvard Dataverse (November 2023, published 2024).
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